Monday 06/22/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Monday 06/22/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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High Stakes Syndicate


Free Selection for Monday:

San Francisco/Oakland under 8
 

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Totals4U


Monday's Free selection:

Colorado Rockies/LA Angels under 9
 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play:

MLB Colorado/LA Angels Under 9 Runs
 

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#1 Sports

Monday's Free selection:

Rockies/Angels under 9
 

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R&R Totals

Free MLB Over-Under

San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland Athletics:

Total 8 un+104
 

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Craig Trapp

Now Craig's Bonus Play is a Total Play for Monday!

St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets:

Total 9½ ov-105



Betting Trends


-Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings.


-Over is 8-3-1 in Mets last 12 games as an underdog.


-Over is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.


-Over is 7-2-1 in Wellemeyers last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.



STL is coming off a sweep of KC over the weekend. NYM on the other hand is coming off another losing series as TB beat them down in the last few days. These teams are headed in opposite direction STL is 7-3 in last 10 whereas NYM are 3-7!! New York has a 5.48 ERA in its last 16 games, losing 10. The Mets used seven pitchers against Tampa Bay on Sunday, giving up 17 hits in a 10-6 loss. STL is coming off another offensive blow up yesterday where they scored 12 runs. In the last three games they have blown up offensively scoring 29 runs!! Today both teams pound out the #5 pitchers from both teams. Not close this one is OVER NO DOUBT!! SCORE STL 8 - NYM 5
 

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MONDAY, JUNE 22



NATIONAL LEAGUE


St. Louis (39-31) at N.Y. Mets (34-33)


Fresh off a three-game interleague sweep of the Royals in Kansas City, the Cardinals head to Citi Field for a four-game series against the Mets, with Todd Wellemeyer (6-6, 5.36 ERA) scheduled to pitch for the visitors tonight opposite Tim Redding (0-2, 6.27).



The Cardinals’ offense exploded for 29 runs in Kansas City over the weekend, capped by Sunday’s 12-5 rout. St. Louis has won five of its last six and is on further hot streaks of 6-2 on the road, 7-1 against right-handed starters, 11-5 against the N.L. East and 11-4 when facing teams with a winning record. However, Tony LaRussa’s squad has dropped five straight games on Monday and six of eight series openers.



New York started its current homestand by losing two of three to Tampa Bay, including Sunday’s 10-6 setback. The Mets have dropped four of their last five overall 12 of their last 18, and they’re also 3-7 in their last 10 against N.L. Central opponents and 2-6 in their last eight against right-handed starters. On the bright side, New York is on runs of 13-7 at home, 12-5 as a home chalk and 16-8 as a favorite.


The Cardinals swept a three-game home series from New York from April 21-23, outscoring the Mets 23-14. The host has won four straight and five of six in this rivalry.


Wellemeyer gave up just two runs on six hits in Wednesday’s 4-3 home win over Detroit, but he lasted just 5 1/3 innings, meaning the right-hander has now had five straight non-quality starts while posting a 5.65 ERA during this stretch. Wellemeyer is 3-1 in four road starts despite a 5.16 ERA.



With Wellemeyer on the hill, St. Louis is on upticks of 4-1 on the road, 6-0 as a road ‘dog and 5-0 when facing N.L. East teams, including a 6-4 home win over the Mets on April 21. In that contest, Wellemeyer gave up four runs on 10 hits in five innings. He’s now 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in six career appearances (three starts) against New York.


Redding has failed to record a decision in his last three starts despite posting a respectable 3.93 ERA. In his most recent outing Wednesday, the veteran right-hander gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings at Baltimore, with the Mets losing 6-4 to fall to 1-5 in Redding’s six starts this season. At home this year, Redding is 0-1 with an 8.18 ERA in two starts.


Redding is 3-5 with a 5.65 ERA in 13 career games (12 starts) against the Redbirds, surrendering six runs or more in three of the last four starts.


The over is 13-6-3 in the Mets’ last 22 games on Monday and 48-23-3 in the last 74 against N.L. Central opponents. On the flip side, St. Louis is on “under” streaks of 7-3-1 as an underdog, 7-3-2 in series openers, 6-1 on Monday, 7-3 with Wellemeyer starting, 7-1 with Wellemeyer working on the road and 5-1 when Wellemeyer pitches on Monday.



Lastly, the over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these clubs (2-1 this season), but the under is 6-2-1 in the last nine clashes in New York.



ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS




Colorado (36-33) at L.A. Angels (36-31)


The red-hot Rockies resume interleague play when they visit Southern California for a three-game series against the Angels. Aaron Cook (6-3, 4.23) gets the call for Colorado against unbeaten rookie Matt Palmer (6-0, 4.13).


Colorado completed a three-game home sweep of the Pirates with Sunday’s 5-4 victory, improving to 16-1 in its last 17 games. The Rockies’ incredible surge began with an 11-game winning streak – including eight straight road wins – and after a 12-4 home loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday, they’ve bounced back with five consecutive wins. Additionally, Colorado is on runs of 11-1 as an underdog and 7-1 in interleague play this season, including 4-0 versus the A.L. West.


Los Angeles is coming off Sunday night’s 5-3 loss to the crosstown rival Dodgers and has now followed up a seven-game winning streak with consecutive defeats. Still, the Angels are on impressive runs of 8-2 as a favorite, 5-2 at home, 4-1 on Monday and 5-0 in series openers. Additionally, despite losing to the Dodgers the last two days, the Halos carry positive interleague trends of 35-17 overall, 20-7 against winning teams and 19-8 against the N.L. West.


The Angels have handled Colorado recently, winning seven of the last nine head-to-head clashes.


Cook is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three starts, all of them quality outings, and he’s given up four earned runs or fewer in 11 straight starts (three earned runs or less in nine of those games). On the road this season, the veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA, but 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA in the last four on the highway.


Although Cook has been pitching well recently, Colorado is 8-20 in his last 28 road starts against winning teams, 2-5 in his last seven interleague outings and 1-5 in his last six on Monday. However, in his only career start against the Angels back in 2006, Cook earned a 12-4 road win, giving up three runs in seven innings.



Palmer has delivered three straight quality starts (2.79 ERA), including Wednesday at San Francisco as he gave up three runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings. He left trailing 3-1, but Los Angeles rallied for a 4-3 victory, improving to 8-1 with Palmer on the hill this season, including 4-1 at home. The right-hander is 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA in those five games at Angel Stadium.


Palmer made three starts with San Francisco last August, the final one being a 7-2 loss to Colorado as he yielded five runs (four earned) in 4 1/3 innings, allowing four hits while walking six.


With Cook pitching, the “over” is on runs of 17-7-2 overall, 10-2-1 on the road and 6-1-1 as an underdog, but his last four interleague starts have stayed low. Meanwhile, the over is 6-3 in Palmer’s nine starts this year.


Colorado is on “under” stretches of 19-8-1 against American League opponents, 4-0 in interleague roadies, 4-1 as an underdog and 13-6-2 as a road pup. Conversely, for the Angels, the “over” is on runs of 7-3-1 overall (all against the N.L. West), 5-2 at home, 7-2-1 as a favorite and 5-2 against right-handed pitching. Finally, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six battles between these squads and 4-1-2 in the last seven meetings in Anaheim.


ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
 

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Monday's Tip Sheet

By Brad Young


There are just four games on Monday’s schedule, with two games involving National League teams and two interleague matchups. So here’s a closer look at every game on Monday’s Major League Baseball schedule.

**Cardinals (Wellemeyer) at Mets (Redding)**



-Las Vegas Sports Consultants installed New York as a $1.13 home ‘chalk’ over St. Louis, with the total set at 9 ½ ‘under’ (minus $1.25). This National League matchup is slated to start at 7:10 p.m. ET.

-St. Louis hurler Todd Wellemeyer (6-6, 5.36 ERA) toppled Detroit in his latest effort Wednesday as a $1.13 home underdog, 4-3. The seven-year veteran went 5 1/3 innings, yielding two runs on six hits (two home runs) with two walks and five strikeouts.

-The combined seven runs failed to eclipse the 8 ½-run closing total, ending back-to-back ‘over’ outings for the right-hander.

-Wellemeyer recorded a no-decision against the Mets April 21, tossing five innings while surrendering four runs on 10 hits with two walks and a strikeout. The Cardinals eventually won that contest as a $1.10 home favorite, 6-4, while the combined 10 runs slithered ‘over’ the 9 ½-run closing total.

-New York’s Tim Redding (0-2, 6.27 ERA) heads to the hill after recording three consecutive no decisions. The 32-year-old lasted 5 1/3 innings against Baltimore, allowing four runs on seven hits (one home run) with four walks and two strikeouts.

-The Mets eventually dropped that affair as a $1.45 road underdog, 6-4, while the combined 10 runs landed directly on the closing total.

-Redding finagled a no-decision against the Cardinals last season as a member of the Washington Nationals. The righty was reached for six runs on nine hits (two home runs) with a walk and a strikeout over 5 2/3 innings. The Nats rallied to win that contest as a $1.35 home ‘chalk,’ 10-9, while the combined 19 runs soared ‘over’ the nine-run closing total.

**Cubs (Dempster) at Braves (Vazquez)**

-LVSC opened Atlanta as a $1.30 home favorite over Chicago, with the total listed at eight. This contest is scheduled to begin at 7:10 p.m. ET.

-Chicago gives the starting assignment to Ryan Dempster (4-4, 3.92 ERA), hoping the Canadian can get back on track. The veteran right-hander fell to the White Sox Wednesday as a $1.43 home ‘chalk,’ 4-1, tossing six innings while yielding three runs on four hits (one home run) with six walks and four strikeouts.

-The combined five runs failed to topple the 8 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash his fourth straight start.

-Dempster beat the Braves last season as a $1.75 home favorite, 7-2, going the complete-game route while surrendering both runs on four hits (one home run) with no walks and 11 strikeouts. The combined nine runs went ‘under’ the 10-run closing total.

-Atlanta right-hander Javier Vazquez (4-6, 3.41 ERA) is gunning for his first victory in over a month after going 0-3 his last five starts. The Puerto Rico native fell to Cincinnati Wednesday as a $1.50 road ‘chalk,’ 4-3, pitching eight innings while allowing four runs on four hits (two home runs) with two walks and seven strikeouts.

-The combined seven runs did not eclipse the 8 ½-run closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to cash his fourth consecutive contest.

-Vazquez went 0-1 against the Cubs last season in two starts, tossing a combined 10 1/3 innings while yielding 10 runs (nine earned) on 14 hits (two home runs) with eight walks and 11 strikeouts. The Braves prevailed as a $1.40 home favorite, 6-5, while losing as a $1.20 road underdog, 7-1.

**Rockies (Cook) at Angels (Palmer)**

-LVSC lists Los Angeles as a $1.33 home ‘chalk’ over Colorado, with the total set at 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus $1.25). This interleague contest is slated to start at 10:05 p.m. ET.

-Colorado’s Aaron Cook (6-3, 4.23 ERA) is riding a personal three-game winning streak after Wednesday’s victory over Tampa Bay as a $1.10 home favorite, 5-3. The eight-year veteran was reached for three runs on eight hits (two home runs) with a walk and three strikeouts over seven innings.

-The combined eight runs failed to eclipse the 10-run closing total, ending back-to-back ‘over’ outings for the right-hander.

-Cook has not started against the Angels the previous few seasons.

-Los Angeles pitcher Matt Palmer (6-0, 4.04 ERA) is off Wednesday’s no-decision against San Francisco. The 30-year-old went 6 1/3 innings, allowing three runs on six hits (one home run) with two walks and five strikeouts.

-The Angels eventually won that matchup as a $1.63 road underdog, 4-3, while the combined seven runs slithered ‘under’ the 7 ½-run closing total.

-Palmer fell to the Rockies last season as a member of the San Francisco Giants as a $1.20 home underdog, 7-2. The Southwest Missouri State product lasted 4 1/3 innings while being tagged for five runs (four earned) on four hits with six walks and a strikeout. The combined nine runs went ‘over’ the 8 ½-run closing total.

**Giants (Sanchez) at Athletics (Cahill)**

-LVSC opened Oakland as a $1.53 home favorite over San Francisco, with the total set at 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus $1.15). First pitch is scheduled for 10:05 p.m. ET.

-San Francisco southpaw Jonathan Sanchez (2-7, 5.52 ERA) toes the rubber mired in a personal three-game losing streak after Tuesday’s setback to the Los Angeles Angels as a $1.25 home ‘chalk,’ 8-1. The four-year veteran survived just 3 2/3 innings, yielding seven runs (six earned) on 10 hits (two home runs) with no walks and three strikeouts.

-The combined nine runs landed directly on the closing total.

-Sanchez beat the Athletics last season as a $1.25 road underdog, 11-1. The 27-year-old surrendered the lone run on four hits (one home run) with a walk and six strikeouts over seven innings. The combined 12 runs went ‘over’ the eight-run closing total.

-Oakland’s Trevor Cahill (4-5, 3.89 ERA) is coming off of Wednesday’s victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers as a $1.48 road underdog, 5-4. The rookie right-hander went 5 1/3 innings, allowing two unearned runs on four hits with four walks and three strikeouts.

-The combined nine runs toppled the 7 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 2-1 his last three starts.

-Cahill has never started against the Giants in his brief major league career.

VegasInsider
 
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Monday, June 22

With interleague play here, remember there are DHs in games played in the American League parks, no DHs in National League parks. Under is 48-32-3 in NL parks, 44-32-5 in AL, As far as wins/losses go, the AL leads the NL, 88-79.

Hot Pitchers
-- Cardinals are 4-1 on road when Wellemeyer starts.
-- Cook is 3-0, 2.14 in his last three starts. Angels won seven of eight Palmer starts, scoring 53 runs.
-- Oakland won last three Cahill starts (2-0, 3.44).
-- Dempster is 1-1, 2.42 in his last four starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Redding is 0-2, 6.27 in six starts for the Mets.
-- Sanchez is 0-3, 7.86 in his last four starts.
-- Braves lost last five Vazquez starts (0-3, 3,71), scoring eight runs.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games.
-- Rockies won 16 of their last 17 games. Angels won five of their last seven home games.
-- A's won eight of their last eleven home games. Giants are 12-6 in last 18 games, 6-3 at home, 6-3 on road.
-- Cubs won their last four games, scoring 32 runs.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Braves lost eight of their last eleven games.

Totals
-- Over is 6-2-3 in Cardinals' last eleven road games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Colorado games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Giants' last eight games.
-- Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total.
 
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Trend Report

7:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. ATLANTA
Chi Cubs are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs

7:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis

10:05 PM
COLORADO vs. LA ANGELS
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Angels are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado
LA Angels are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home

10:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. OAKLAND
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of San Francisco's last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Oakland is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
 
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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets (-111, 9.5)

Albert Pujols decided to remind everyone that he’s the most fearsome batter since Tom Selleck in Mr. Baseball. The All-Star first baseman clubbed out two homers in St. Louis’ 12-5 win on Sunday, capping off a three-game sweep of Kansas City that included three Pujols bombs.

The player nicknamed the Machine by ESPN has eight jacks in his last 10 games and the Cards are now 17-4 when the big fella goes yard.

Pujols isn’t the only Red Bird showing off muscle at the plate. Infielder Khalil Greene, who had missed 19 games with a social anxiety disorder, knocked out a big fly for a third straight game. He left in the fourth inning after his right knee was hit by a pitch.

St. Louis began the month of June on a sour note, going 2-7 in its first nine contests. The club has since turned things around and sit atop the National League Central.

Expect Pujols and Company to rattle Mets starter Tim Redding early and often on Monday.

Pick: St. Louis


Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (-139, 8)

Just when it seemed like the Chicago Cubs forgot how to cross home plate, the defending NL Central champs snapped out of their offensive slump to score 26 runs in four games.

The Cubbies, who accumulated just 10 runs in their previous six games, have won four games in a row. The added offensive production can be attributed to Milton Bradley and Derrek Lee.

Bradley, who has already had some rocky moments in his first year with the Cubs, is getting on base and giving his teammates more chances to knock in runs.

Lee, meanwhile, isn’t just hitting, he’s also hitting more out of the park. He’s riding an 18-game hitting streak and has two home runs in his last four contests.

Pick: Over
 
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Dave Cokin

(957) CHICAGO CUBS
(958) ATLANTA BRAVES
Take "(957) CHICAGO CUBS"

The Cubs have suddenly snapped out of their funk. Three straight rallies for walk-off wins followed by a wire to wire win on Sunday, and the Cubs are now a hot team as they head to Atlanta. Javier Vazquez rates the edge over Ryan Dempster as far as the pitchers are concerned. But Vazquez has not exactly been lucky at home, and at the price, I see solid value in backing the suddenly streaking Cubs.
 
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Jim Feist

(955) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
(956) OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Take "(956) OAKLAND ATHLETICS"

The SF Giants are in second place in the NL West, 7 1/2 back of the Dodgers. The Giants have been decent this year with their 37-31 record and they are +9 in run differential. While the A's are in dead last in the AL West, they are actually closer to first place LA Angels (7 games) then the Giants are to the Dodgers. Jonathan Sanchez starts for the Giants and its been a rough season for the southpaw. Sanchez is 2-7 on the year with a 5.43 ERA including a 0-3 mark in his last three starts with a 7.71 era. The A's Trevor Cahill has been good with a 4-5 mark and nice 3.89 era. Unlike Sanchez, Cahill is 2-0 in his last three starts with a nifty 2.45 era. Two pitchers here heading in opposite directions. We'll take the home club and bragging rights for the East side of the Bay.
 

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Willie Bee

06/22/2009


Mother Nature didn't cooperate with the PGA this past weekend, and there's a good chance she won't cooperate with the Cardinals and Mets this week at Citi Field.
When I was looking ahead on the MLB schedule last week and saw the Cardinals and Mets squaring off in the lone NL-only series to start Week 12, I got excited about seeing a matchup of their two aces, Chris Carpenter (5-4, 1.53) for St. Louis and New York's Johan Santana (8-6, 3.22). Sure enough, the pair do meet head-to-head...but not until Game 4 of the series on Thursday afternoon.


That's right Tony, all you need to do
is win two of the first three games.
That game will still be a good one and part of what is shaping up to be a Thursday that also is slated to include a few other intriguing pitching battles that includes Andy Pettitte and Derek Lowe meeting in the finale of the Yankees, Braves series and John Smoltz making his season and Red Sox debut in DC against the Nats' young Jordan Zimmermann.

The -120 line on the Cardinals for the series price (Mets +100 at TheGreek) is what I'm after here, and not having to include the Carpenter, Santana contest is actually a good thing that will be a tough one to handicap. That doesn't mean there aren't some tough matchups to cap still, however, and the real bad news is the weather report makes it rather iffy on this series having action. More on that later.

The series opens at Citi Field on Monday night with Todd Wellemeyer (8-6, 5.36) on the mound for St. Louis opposite New York's Tim Redding (1-5, 6.27). Tuesday's game pits Joel Pineiro (5-8, 3.76) against Livan Hernandez (7-6, 4.18) and Wednesday finds Brad Thompson (3-1, 3.89) slated for the Cardinals against the Mets' Fernando Nieve (2-0, 1.84).

On the surface it would seem an obvious notion to give Wellemeyer and the Cards and edge on Monday, with Tuesday's initial nod going to Livan Hernandez. That would make the Thompson-Nieve matchup the series breaker, and a tough one to get a handle on with both arms having just six starts under their belts between them.

Thompson is in the St. Louis starting mix in place of Lohse and has recorded a nice 3.63 in his four trips to the mound to begin a game. Nieve is in the Mets' rotation for John Maine and has been a very pleasant surprise with New York winning both of his starts.

The two teams are evenly matched in terms of scoring with the Mets sixth in the NL at 4.62 RPG and the Cards just ahead at 4.65 per contest. That doesn't mean these are similar offenses though. St. Louis is relying on the long ball this year, fourth in the National League with 76 HR and 11th in steals with 35. New York ranks near the bottom in homers with just 43 as they jockey for the cellar in that category with the Giants and Pirates. The Mets are first in steals by a wide margin with 70, and second in on-base (.356) to the Cards' .330 which is 10th.

New York's running game will be tested in this series by St. Louis catchers Yadier Molina and Jason LaRue. Teams have attempted just 25 steals against the Cardinals this season, and Redbird backstops have caught 11 of those (44%). Molina has caught nine of 21 while LaRue has nailed two of four would-be thieves. Of LaRue's nine starts this year, seven have come with Wellemeyer on the mound, so look for that possible in Monday's series opener.

St. Louis has the edge on the mound where they are third in the NL in ERA (3.84) and total runs allowed, giving up about 0.40 fewer runs per game than New York. As far as closers go, the Mets have the bigger name in Francisco Rodriguez, but don't overlook the job that the Cardinals, Ryan Franklin has done this year. Franklin has done a much better job than Rodriguez when it comes to issuing free passes in 2009, walking just five in 27 innings while K-Rod has walked 17 in 33.2 IP.


Thursday's matchup is a dandy.
Anyone that was paying attention to the US Open this past weekend at Bethpage knows about the wet weather in the NYC area. That course is some 22 miles or so almost due west from Citi Field in Queens where rain interrupted play between the Mets and Rays over the weekend. Monday's forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain tapering just a bit to 40% on Monday night. Winds are currently listed for between 10-20 MPH out of the North (in from center/left-center).

There is at least a 30% chance of rain for Tuesday through Thursday as well. If any games is rained out, your guess is as good as mine as to when they would try to make it up. The two teams are scheduled to meet again in New York for a two-game set on Aug 4-5, but there's a hitch in trying to make them up then. The Aug 5 game is a 12:10 ET start and the Mets have to fly out after that across the Lower 48 to San Diego for a series against the Padres starting on Aug 6. So if they decide to make one up then it would have to be a day-night doubleheader on Aug 4.

The most sensible time to play the make-up would be this Thursday night after the regularly scheduled afternoon game. The Mets stay at home this weekend to meet the Yankees while St. Louis heads home to open their last interleague match against the Twins. If they were to play it after the regular Thursday game, it could throw the pitching matchups off that day so stay tuned.

I still like the Cards for the series, at least the first three games and assuming they all go off as planned. St. Louis comes in playing much better than New York recently and feel they have the edge on offense with the pitching, both the matchups and the bullpens, pretty much a wash. I'll play St. Louis with a series wager and if Wellemeyer can put the Cards ahead on Monday will consider hedging the series bet on Tuesday with a small play on Quarter Pounder (aka, Livan Hernandez).
 

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Free Selection MLB

Cubs +125 over Atlanta
 

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

St. Louis (39-31) at N.Y. Mets (34-33)

Fresh off a three-game interleague sweep of the Royals in Kansas City, the Cardinals head to Citi Field for a four-game series against the Mets, with Todd Wellemeyer (6-6, 5.36 ERA) scheduled to pitch for the visitors tonight opposite Tim Redding (0-2, 6.27).

The Cardinals’ offense exploded for 29 runs in Kansas City over the weekend, capped by Sunday’s 12-5 rout. St. Louis has won five of its last six and is on further hot streaks of 6-2 on the road, 7-1 against right-handed starters, 11-5 against the N.L. East and 11-4 when facing teams with a winning record. However, Tony LaRussa’s squad has dropped five straight games on Monday and six of eight series openers.

New York started its current homestand by losing two of three to Tampa Bay, including Sunday’s 10-6 setback. The Mets have dropped four of their last five overall 12 of their last 18, and they’re also 3-7 in their last 10 against N.L. Central opponents and 2-6 in their last eight against right-handed starters. On the bright side, New York is on runs of 13-7 at home, 12-5 as a home chalk and 16-8 as a favorite.

The Cardinals swept a three-game home series from New York from April 21-23, outscoring the Mets 23-14. The host has won four straight and five of six in this rivalry.

Wellemeyer gave up just two runs on six hits in Wednesday’s 4-3 home win over Detroit, but he lasted just 5 1/3 innings, meaning the right-hander has now had five straight non-quality starts while posting a 5.65 ERA during this stretch. Wellemeyer is 3-1 in four road starts despite a 5.16 ERA.

With Wellemeyer on the hill, St. Louis is on upticks of 4-1 on the road, 6-0 as a road ‘dog and 5-0 when facing N.L. East teams, including a 6-4 home win over the Mets on April 21. In that contest, Wellemeyer gave up four runs on 10 hits in five innings. He’s now 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in six career appearances (three starts) against New York.

Redding has failed to record a decision in his last three starts despite posting a respectable 3.93 ERA. In his most recent outing Wednesday, the veteran right-hander gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings at Baltimore, with the Mets losing 6-4 to fall to 1-5 in Redding’s six starts this season. At home this year, Redding is 0-1 with an 8.18 ERA in two starts.

Redding is 3-5 with a 5.65 ERA in 13 career games (12 starts) against the Redbirds, surrendering six runs or more in three of the last four starts.

The over is 13-6-3 in the Mets’ last 22 games on Monday and 48-23-3 in the last 74 against N.L. Central opponents. On the flip side, St. Louis is on “under” streaks of 7-3-1 as an underdog, 7-3-2 in series openers, 6-1 on Monday, 7-3 with Wellemeyer starting, 7-1 with Wellemeyer working on the road and 5-1 when Wellemeyer pitches on Monday.

Lastly, the over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these clubs (2-1 this season), but the under is 6-2-1 in the last nine clashes in New York.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS


Colorado (36-33) at L.A. Angels (36-31)

The red-hot Rockies resume interleague play when they visit Southern California for a three-game series against the Angels. Aaron Cook (6-3, 4.23) gets the call for Colorado against unbeaten rookie Matt Palmer (6-0, 4.13).

Colorado completed a three-game home sweep of the Pirates with Sunday’s 5-4 victory, improving to 16-1 in its last 17 games. The Rockies’ incredible surge began with an 11-game winning streak – including eight straight road wins – and after a 12-4 home loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday, they’ve bounced back with five consecutive wins. Additionally, Colorado is on runs of 11-1 as an underdog and 7-1 in interleague play this season, including 4-0 versus the A.L. West.

Los Angeles is coming off Sunday night’s 5-3 loss to the crosstown rival Dodgers and has now followed up a seven-game winning streak with consecutive defeats. Still, the Angels are on impressive runs of 8-2 as a favorite, 5-2 at home, 4-1 on Monday and 5-0 in series openers. Additionally, despite losing to the Dodgers the last two days, the Halos carry positive interleague trends of 35-17 overall, 20-7 against winning teams and 19-8 against the N.L. West.

The Angels have handled Colorado recently, winning seven of the last nine head-to-head clashes.

Cook is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three starts, all of them quality outings, and he’s given up four earned runs or fewer in 11 straight starts (three earned runs or less in nine of those games). On the road this season, the veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA, but 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA in the last four on the highway.

Although Cook has been pitching well recently, Colorado is 8-20 in his last 28 road starts against winning teams, 2-5 in his last seven interleague outings and 1-5 in his last six on Monday. However, in his only career start against the Angels back in 2006, Cook earned a 12-4 road win, giving up three runs in seven innings.

Palmer has delivered three straight quality starts (2.79 ERA), including Wednesday at San Francisco as he gave up three runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings. He left trailing 3-1, but Los Angeles rallied for a 4-3 victory, improving to 8-1 with Palmer on the hill this season, including 4-1 at home. The right-hander is 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA in those five games at Angel Stadium.

Palmer made three starts with San Francisco last August, the final one being a 7-2 loss to Colorado as he yielded five runs (four earned) in 4 1/3 innings, allowing four hits while walking six.

With Cook pitching, the “over” is on runs of 17-7-2 overall, 10-2-1 on the road and 6-1-1 as an underdog, but his last four interleague starts have stayed low. Meanwhile, the over is 6-3 in Palmer’s nine starts this year.

Colorado is on “under” stretches of 19-8-1 against American League opponents, 4-0 in interleague roadies, 4-1 as an underdog and 13-6-2 as a road pup. Conversely, for the Angels, the “over” is on runs of 7-3-1 overall (all against the N.L. West), 5-2 at home, 7-2-1 as a favorite and 5-2 against right-handed pitching. Finally, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six battles between these squads and 4-1-2 in the last seven meetings in Anaheim.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

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